I think identifying common modes of inference (e.g., deductive, inductive, analogy) can be helpful, if argument analysis takes place. Retrodiction is used to describe a stage of retroductive (abductive) reasoning, and so has value outside a Bayesian analysis.
If there’s ever an equivalent in wider language for what you’re discussing here (for example, “important premise” for “crux”), consider using the more common form rather than specialized jargon. For example, I find EA use of “counterfactual” to confuse me about the meaning of what I think are discussions of necessary conditions, whereas counterfactual statements are, to me, false statements, relevant in a discussion of hypothetical events that do not occur. Many times I wanted to discuss counterfactuals but worried that the conversation with EA’s would lead to misunderstandings, as if my analysis were to explore necessary conditions for some action or consequence, when that was not the intent.
The “typical mind fallacy” is interesting. On the one hand, I think some inferences taking the form of shared values or experience are fallacious. On the other hand, some typical inferences about similarities between people are reliable and we depend on them. For example, that people dislike insults. A common word starting with ‘n’ has a special case, but is mostly taken as a deeply unwelcome insult, our default is to treat that knowledge as true. We rely on default (defeasible) reasoning when we employ those inferences, and add nuance or admit special cases for their exceptions. In the social world, the “typical mind fallacy” has some strong caveats.
I think identifying common modes of inference (e.g., deductive, inductive, analogy) can be helpful, if argument analysis takes place. Retrodiction is used to describe a stage of retroductive (abductive) reasoning, and so has value outside a Bayesian analysis.
If there’s ever an equivalent in wider language for what you’re discussing here (for example, “important premise” for “crux”), consider using the more common form rather than specialized jargon. For example, I find EA use of “counterfactual” to confuse me about the meaning of what I think are discussions of necessary conditions, whereas counterfactual statements are, to me, false statements, relevant in a discussion of hypothetical events that do not occur. Many times I wanted to discuss counterfactuals but worried that the conversation with EA’s would lead to misunderstandings, as if my analysis were to explore necessary conditions for some action or consequence, when that was not the intent.
The “typical mind fallacy” is interesting. On the one hand, I think some inferences taking the form of shared values or experience are fallacious. On the other hand, some typical inferences about similarities between people are reliable and we depend on them. For example, that people dislike insults. A common word starting with ‘n’ has a special case, but is mostly taken as a deeply unwelcome insult, our default is to treat that knowledge as true. We rely on default (defeasible) reasoning when we employ those inferences, and add nuance or admit special cases for their exceptions. In the social world, the “typical mind fallacy” has some strong caveats.