I agree that there is a risk that this leads to additional burden without meaningful impact.
Seeing the numbers of certifications currently deployed that are used public-facing for marketing as well as to reduce supply-chain risks (see for example this certifier) I would see the chance that longtermist causes like biosecurity risks will be incorporated into existing standards or launched as new standards within the next 10 years at 70%.
If we can preempt this with building one or more standards based on actual expected impact instead of just using it to tick boxes. If this bet works out then we might make a counterfactual impact however I would also like to see the organisation shut down after doing research if it doesn’t see a path to a certification having impact.
I agree that there is a risk that this leads to additional burden without meaningful impact.
Seeing the numbers of certifications currently deployed that are used public-facing for marketing as well as to reduce supply-chain risks (see for example this certifier) I would see the chance that longtermist causes like biosecurity risks will be incorporated into existing standards or launched as new standards within the next 10 years at 70%.
If we can preempt this with building one or more standards based on actual expected impact instead of just using it to tick boxes. If this bet works out then we might make a counterfactual impact however I would also like to see the organisation shut down after doing research if it doesn’t see a path to a certification having impact.