then it would be a violation of the law of the conservation of expected evidence for you to update your beliefs on observing the passage of a minute without the bomb’s exploding.
Interesting! I would think this sort of case just shows that the law of conservation of expected evidence is wrong, at least for this sort of application. I figure it might depend on how you think about evidence. If you think of the infinite void of non-existence as possibly constituting your evidence (albeit evidence you’re not in a position to appreciate, being dead and all), then that principle wouldn’t push you toward this sort of anthropic reasoning.
I am curious, what do you make of the following case?
Suppose you’re touring Acme Bomb & Replica Bomb Co with your friend Eli. ABRBC makes bombs and perfect replicas of bombs, but they’re sticklers for safety so they alternate days for real bombs and replicas. You’re not sure which sort of day it is. You get to the point of the tour where they show off the finished product. As they pass around the latest model from the assembly line, Eli drops it, knocking the safety back and letting the bomb (replica?) land squarely on its ignition button. If it were a real bomb, it would kill everyone unless it were one of the 1-in-a-million bombs that’s a dud. You hold your breath for a second but nothing happens. Whew. How much do you want to bet that it’s a replica day?
Interesting! I would think this sort of case just shows that the law of conservation of expected evidence is wrong, at least for this sort of application. I figure it might depend on how you think about evidence. If you think of the infinite void of non-existence as possibly constituting your evidence (albeit evidence you’re not in a position to appreciate, being dead and all), then that principle wouldn’t push you toward this sort of anthropic reasoning.
I am curious, what do you make of the following case?
Suppose you’re touring Acme Bomb & Replica Bomb Co with your friend Eli. ABRBC makes bombs and perfect replicas of bombs, but they’re sticklers for safety so they alternate days for real bombs and replicas. You’re not sure which sort of day it is. You get to the point of the tour where they show off the finished product. As they pass around the latest model from the assembly line, Eli drops it, knocking the safety back and letting the bomb (replica?) land squarely on its ignition button. If it were a real bomb, it would kill everyone unless it were one of the 1-in-a-million bombs that’s a dud. You hold your breath for a second but nothing happens. Whew. How much do you want to bet that it’s a replica day?