To what degree do you think the x-risk research community (of ~~100 people) collectively decreases x-risk? If I knew this, then you would have roughly estimated the value of an average x-risk researcher.
To make that question more precise, we’re trying to estimate xrisk_{counterfactual world without those people} - xrisk_{our world}, with xrisk_{our world}~1/6 if we stick to The Precipice’s estimate.
Let’s assume that the x-risk research community completely vanishes right now (including the past outputs, and all the research it would have created). It’s hard to quantify, but I would personally be at least twice as worried about AI risk that I am right now (I am unsure about how much it would affect nuclear/climate change/natural disasters/engineered pandemics risk and other risks).
Now, how much of the “community” was actually funded by “EA $”? How much of those researchers would not be capable of the same level of output without the funding we currently have? How much of the x-risk reduction is actually done by our impact in the past (e.g. new sub-fields of x-risk research being created, where progress is now (indirectly) being made by people outside of the x-risk community) vs. researcher hours today? What fraction of those researchers would still be working on x-risk on the side even if their work wasn’t fully funded by “EA $”?
To what degree do you think the x-risk research community (of ~~100 people) collectively decreases x-risk? If I knew this, then you would have roughly estimated the value of an average x-risk researcher.
To make that question more precise, we’re trying to estimate xrisk_{counterfactual world without those people} - xrisk_{our world}, with xrisk_{our world}~1/6 if we stick to The Precipice’s estimate.
Let’s assume that the x-risk research community completely vanishes right now (including the past outputs, and all the research it would have created). It’s hard to quantify, but I would personally be at least twice as worried about AI risk that I am right now (I am unsure about how much it would affect nuclear/climate change/natural disasters/engineered pandemics risk and other risks).
Now, how much of the “community” was actually funded by “EA $”? How much of those researchers would not be capable of the same level of output without the funding we currently have? How much of the x-risk reduction is actually done by our impact in the past (e.g. new sub-fields of x-risk research being created, where progress is now (indirectly) being made by people outside of the x-risk community) vs. researcher hours today? What fraction of those researchers would still be working on x-risk on the side even if their work wasn’t fully funded by “EA $”?