This was great. This question may be too meta for its own good:
Are there plausible situations where the trend of volatility isn’t stable over time? I.e. if the blue-lined envelope appears to be narrowing over deliberative effort, but then again expands wildly, or vice-versa. Call it ‘chaotic volatility’ for reference.
This might be just an extreme version of the fourth graph, but it actually seems even worse. At least in the fourth graph you might be able to recognise you’re in stable or worsening volatility—in chaotic volatility you could be mistaken about what kind of epistemic situation you’re in. You could think there’s little further to be gained, but you’re actually just before a period of narrowing volatility. Or think you’re settled and confident, but with a little more deliberation a new planet swims into your ken.
One example I could think of is if someone in the general public is doing some standard career-choice agonising, doing trials, talking to people, etc. and is getting greater resilience for an option. And then on a little further reading they find 80,000 Hours and EA, and all of a sudden there’s a ton more to think about and their previous resilience breaks.
I don’t know if anything action-relevant comes from considering this situation, beyond what the post already laid out. Maybe it’s just trying to keep an eye out for possible quasi-‘crucial considerations’ for their own choices or something.
This was great. This question may be too meta for its own good:
Are there plausible situations where the trend of volatility isn’t stable over time? I.e. if the blue-lined envelope appears to be narrowing over deliberative effort, but then again expands wildly, or vice-versa. Call it ‘chaotic volatility’ for reference.
This might be just an extreme version of the fourth graph, but it actually seems even worse. At least in the fourth graph you might be able to recognise you’re in stable or worsening volatility—in chaotic volatility you could be mistaken about what kind of epistemic situation you’re in. You could think there’s little further to be gained, but you’re actually just before a period of narrowing volatility. Or think you’re settled and confident, but with a little more deliberation a new planet swims into your ken.
One example I could think of is if someone in the general public is doing some standard career-choice agonising, doing trials, talking to people, etc. and is getting greater resilience for an option. And then on a little further reading they find 80,000 Hours and EA, and all of a sudden there’s a ton more to think about and their previous resilience breaks.
I don’t know if anything action-relevant comes from considering this situation, beyond what the post already laid out. Maybe it’s just trying to keep an eye out for possible quasi-‘crucial considerations’ for their own choices or something.