Single data point: In the most recent survey on community opinion on AI risk, I was in at least the 75th percentile for pessimism (for roughly the same reasons Lukas suggests below). But I’m also seemingly unusually optimistic about alignment risk.
I haven’t found that this is a really unusual combo: I think I know at least a few other people who are unusually pessimistic about ‘AI going well,’ but also at least moderately optimistic about alignment.
(Caveat that my apparently higher level of pessimism could also be explained by me having a more inclusive conception of “existential risk” than other survey participants.)
FWIW, I haven’t had this impression.
Single data point: In the most recent survey on community opinion on AI risk, I was in at least the 75th percentile for pessimism (for roughly the same reasons Lukas suggests below). But I’m also seemingly unusually optimistic about alignment risk.
I haven’t found that this is a really unusual combo: I think I know at least a few other people who are unusually pessimistic about ‘AI going well,’ but also at least moderately optimistic about alignment.
(Caveat that my apparently higher level of pessimism could also be explained by me having a more inclusive conception of “existential risk” than other survey participants.)