It appears to be the extrapolation using exponential growth from current capacity using maximum likelihood to fit the growth rate. Whether you believe the date comes down to how well you think their generalized logical Qubit measures what they’re trying to capture.
I think it’s worth remembering that asking experts for timelines requiring more than 10 years often results in guessing 10 years, so I would tend to favor a data-based extrapolation over that.
It appears to be the extrapolation using exponential growth from current capacity using maximum likelihood to fit the growth rate. Whether you believe the date comes down to how well you think their generalized logical Qubit measures what they’re trying to capture.
I think it’s worth remembering that asking experts for timelines requiring more than 10 years often results in guessing 10 years, so I would tend to favor a data-based extrapolation over that.