On policy, there’s Annie Duke’s idea of “resulting”, that just because a policy leads to success or failure doesn’t necessarily speak to whether it was the strategically best choice. Causes of policy failure go beyond the policy specifics. For example, bad luck is a cause of policy failure. Accordingly, then, you can be certain your policy choice is the best but still be doubtful of the intended outcome’s occurrence.
There’s a bit of irony in that we should also realize our ignorance of what others want from policy, stated goals are not necessarily shared goals.
On policy, there’s Annie Duke’s idea of “resulting”, that just because a policy leads to success or failure doesn’t necessarily speak to whether it was the strategically best choice. Causes of policy failure go beyond the policy specifics. For example, bad luck is a cause of policy failure. Accordingly, then, you can be certain your policy choice is the best but still be doubtful of the intended outcome’s occurrence.
There’s a bit of irony in that we should also realize our ignorance of what others want from policy, stated goals are not necessarily shared goals.