Cool series, thanks for sharing on the forum. One nitpick:
ACE estimates that the average vegetarian stays vegetarian for 3.9-7.2 years, implying a five-year dropout rate of 14-26%.
I’m not sure how your rate is being calculated from ACE’s figures here, but at first pass it seems wrong? Since 5 years is within but slightly towards the lower end of the range given for how long the average vegetarian stays vegetarian, I’d assume we’d end up with something more like a ~45% five-year dropout rate. By contrast, a 14-26% five-year dropout rate would suggest that >50% of vegetarians are still vegetarian after two such periods, i.e. 10 years.
If I’m misunderstanding either stat, just let me know and will happily retract.
Cool series, thanks for sharing on the forum. One nitpick:
I’m not sure how your rate is being calculated from ACE’s figures here, but at first pass it seems wrong? Since 5 years is within but slightly towards the lower end of the range given for how long the average vegetarian stays vegetarian, I’d assume we’d end up with something more like a ~45% five-year dropout rate. By contrast, a 14-26% five-year dropout rate would suggest that >50% of vegetarians are still vegetarian after two such periods, i.e. 10 years.
If I’m misunderstanding either stat, just let me know and will happily retract.
Thanks Alex! You are correct. I accidentally put the annual dropout rates there instead of five-year dropout rates.
The implied five-year rate is 53%-77%, approximately in line with Ben’s estimates for GWWC members. I’ve updated the text accordingly.