In this sequence Jacob Lagerros and Ben Goldhaber introduce and motivate pieces of infrastructure intended to improve our ability to forecast novel and uncertain domains like AI. It introduces:
The AI Forecasting Dictionary, an open-source set of standards and conventions for precisely interpreting AI and auxiliary terms.
The AI Forecasting Resolution Council, a group of researchers with technical expertise in AI who will allow us to expand the space of effectively forecastable questions.
An open-source database of 76 questions about AI progress, together with detailed resolution conditions, categorizations and several spreadsheets compiling outside views and data, as well as learning points about how to write good AI forecasting questions.