Quantitative Models for Cause Selection

Quantitative models can help us determine which interventions to support. However, naïve cost-effectiveness estimates have big problems. In particular:

  1. They don’t give stronger consideration to more robust estimates.

  2. They don’t always account for all relevant factors.

In this sequence, I present and analyze several models for cause selection.

Ex­pected Value Es­ti­mates You Can (Maybe) Take Literally

On Priors

A Com­plete Quan­ti­ta­tive Model for Cause Selection

Quan­tify­ing the Far Fu­ture Effects of Interventions