This is a 5-part series entitled Conscious AI and Public Perception, encompassing the sections of a paper by the same title. This paper explores the intersection of two questions: Will future advanced AI systems be conscious? and Will future human society believe advanced AI systems to be conscious? Assuming binary (yes/​no) responses to the above questions gives rise to four possible future scenarios—true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative. We explore the specific risks & implications involved in each scenario with the aim of distilling recommendations for research & policy which are efficacious under different assumptions.

This paper was written as part of the Supervised Program for Alignment Research in Spring 2024. We are posting it on the EA Forum as part of AI Welfare Debate Week as a way to get feedback before official publication.