There are many views on how to handle tiny probabilities of vast utilities, but all of them are controversial. Some of these views undermine arguments for mainstream longtermist projects and some do not. However, longtermist projects shelter within the herd of ordinary behaviors: It is difficult to find a view that undermines arguments for mainstream longtermist projects without also undermining arguments for behaviors like fastening your seatbelt, voting, or building safer nuclear reactors.

In this sequence, Daniel Kokotajlo explores the many problems and promises that come from pursuing tiny probabilities of vast utilities.