SIA > SSA

I think that one prominent approach to anthropic reasoning (the “Self-Indication Assumption” or “SIA”) is better than another (the “Self-Sampling Assumption” or “SSA”). This sequence of four posts explains why. The first post (“Learning from the fact that you exist”) describes SIA and SSA. The second post (“Telekinesis, reference classes, and other scandals”) lays out my main objections to SSA. The third post (“An aside about betting in anthropics”) briefly discusses betting in anthropics, and why I’m not focusing on it. The fourth post (“In defense of the presumptuous philosopher”) discusses some prominent objections to SIA, prospects for finding a theory better than both SIA and SSA, and some of SIA’s possible real-world implications.

SIA > SSA, part 1: Learn­ing from the fact that you exist

SIA > SSA, part 2: Telekine­sis, refer­ence classes, and other scandals

SIA > SSA, part 3: An aside on bet­ting in anthropics

SIA > SSA, part 4: In defense of the pre­sump­tu­ous philosopher