This is an overview of the AI Timelines landscape that aims to make previous timelines research more accessible, and to also introduce new ideas/​framings.

Some questions that we’ll be diving into include:

• What’s the difference between capabilities-based and impact-based forecasts?

• How do the bioanchors, semi-informative priors, and insights-based AI timelines models actually work?

• What might the future of forecasting AI Timelines look like? What kind of work is most urgently needed?

My current plan is to put out the rest of the sequence slowly, probably between September and December 2022.