Really interesting post, I think this kind of macro thinking and overview is sorely needed.
I agree with the improving forecasting, realistically what we should do is model out chances of success as you have done here with weights and then allocate our resources accordingly IE.
For example, if lab-grown meat is 50% then we should weigh this with 50% of the resources and so forth, I’m pretty sure this is currently very out of alignment, and unfortunately influenced by funder preferences and so forth.
thanks for the insightful post.
Hey George, glad to hear more on this project and thought this was a great write-up.
In my opinion, this is exactly the kind of thing we need more of in the vegan food world and I’m very on board with the thesis of making a superior product and obsoleting meat as opposed to substituting.
Good luck with the venture and I will be following your progress!