How important do you think it is that your or others’ forecasts are more well-understood or valued among policy-makers? And if you think they should listen to forecasts more often, how do you think we should go about making them more aware?
DE
Karma: 647
Overall I think this sounds really cool. There are a few things I would be cautious of though. One thing I would worry about is artificially creating a sense of two distinct “sides” on an issue, when there is likely much more complexity and many more perspectives than is being presented in the debate. I think there’s a recognition when only one person is being interviewed that there are many other perspectives on the issue, however, when it’s a debate people seem to feel that the perspectives presented encompass the whole space.
The tendency towards side-taking also worries me. The two-party system is a classic example of this, which pushes people towards political coalitions, instead of thinking about each policy or situation independently. Some listeners may be pushed to thinking “I’m on X’s side” which could have negative group polarization effects while also not necessarily promoting a holistic understanding of the issue at hand.
It could also promote a tendency towards “yes/no” questions, which I think aren’t too useful for the kinds of questions we’re interested in which have very complex cost/benefit tradeoffs.
However, if the debates were chaired carefully and the host tries to interject nuance, find common ground, play devil’s advocate, etc., then maybe these worries could be alleviated, while also helping people to understand how different beliefs compare and relate to each other.