13 in total, from this post and an EA meetup—so 48 hours to find two more to be “well calibrated” on the prediction.
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I’m not familiar with too many “personal” prediction sites, one’s you can register your own predictions (outside of predictionbook).
Zocalo, (http://zocalo.sourceforge.net/) is a toolkit for building prediction markets, but isn’t currently supported. https://www.cultivatelabs.com/ creates enterprise prediction markets. And Augur is a cryptocurrency based prediction market that is currently in Alpha, but you can spin up your own test nodes if you wanted to run a separate network..
I can’t access the facebook group, is it public? would be interested to check it out!
Effective Altruism Prediction Registry
Thanks for your post—it sounds like the calculator strongly impacted your decision making in a positive way. Were you already aware of EA ideas before encountering it? And do you think that it was the visual presentation of how far your money can go, or the ease of the calculations that was particularly compelling?
It seems like an easy win would be to make the results of the calculator easily shareable, perhaps with a post to facebook button.
You note it, but I don’t think your calculations truly take into account the counterparty / political risk of being unable to get liquid from Russian stocks. That risk factor is built into the current low price of Russian stocks—why do you think the market is wrong? Because of the longer time horizon of young investors?
If you’re an expert in your field and have good credentials (ex. a PhD), you might consider signing up for one of the many ‘expert networks’ that reporters use to find sources for stories like helpareporter.com or expertisefinder.com.
These directories seem to be a common way for reporters to connect with domain experts to learn more about a topic area or, maybe more likely, find the right pull quotes to provide evidence for their existing thesis.
While it’s unlikely to have a major impact, I expect it would be good to have more EA leaning experts interfacing with reporters could:
Slightly shift the policy conversation in positive ways.
Direct reporters to other high quality sources. “You should avoid all of the papers written by X, he has a grudge against Y, maybe instead talk to Z?”
Help network with reporters and learn about the .
Benefit your career by giving your work more exposure.
And the costs are very low, basically just the risk it becomes a major drain on your attention.
I’d be interested in hearing from reporters at high quality orgs if these are useful or if there are better ways of getting connected with sources.