Do you share Open Phil’s view that there is a > 10% chance of transformative AI (defined as in Open Phil’s post) in the next 20 years? What signposts would alert you that transformative AI is near?
Relatedly, suppose that transformative AI will happen within about 20 years (not necessarily a self improving AGI). Can you explain how MIRI’s research will be relevant in such a near-term scenario (e.g. if it happens by scaling up deep learning methods)?
The authors of the “Concrete Problems in AI safety” paper distinguish between misuse risks and accident risks. Do you think in these terms, and how does your roadmap address misuse risk?