Gregory Lewis🔸

Karma: 5,970

Mostly bio, occasionally forecasting/epistemics, sometimes stats/medicine, too often invective.

Say how much, not more or less versus someone else

Gregory Lewis🔸28 Dec 2023 22:24 UTC

100 points

10 comments5 min readEA link

Most* small probabilities aren’t pascalian

Gregory Lewis🔸7 Aug 2022 16:17 UTC

212 points

20 comments6 min readEA link

Terminate deliberation based on resilience, not certainty

Gregory Lewis🔸5 Jun 2022 20:08 UTC

152 points

16 comments12 min readEA link

Rational predictions often update predictably*

Gregory Lewis🔸15 May 2022 16:09 UTC

143 points

13 comments9 min readEA link

Complex cluelessness as credal fragility

Gregory Lewis🔸8 Feb 2021 16:59 UTC

57 points

50 comments23 min readEA link

Take care with notation for uncertain quantities

Gregory Lewis🔸16 Sep 2020 19:26 UTC

39 points

2 comments5 min readEA link

Challenges in evaluating forecaster performance

Gregory Lewis🔸8 Sep 2020 20:37 UTC

22 points

22 comments5 min readEA link

Use resilience, instead of imprecision, to communicate uncertainty

Gregory Lewis🔸18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC

103 points

34 comments7 min readEA link

Reducing global catastrophic biological risks

Gregory Lewis🔸1 Mar 2020 8:00 UTC

10 points

0 comments3 min readEA link

(80000hours.org)

Reality is often underpowered

Gregory Lewis🔸10 Oct 2019 13:14 UTC

234 points

17 comments5 min readEA link

Risk Communication Strategies for the Very Worst of Cases

Gregory Lewis🔸9 Mar 2019 6:56 UTC

26 points

0 comments1 min readEA link

(www.centerforhealthsecurity.org)

The person-affecting value of existential risk reduction

Gregory Lewis🔸13 Apr 2018 1:44 UTC

64 points

33 comments4 min readEA link

How fragile was history?

Gregory Lewis🔸2 Feb 2018 6:23 UTC

22 points

9 comments4 min readEA link

In defence of epistemic modesty

Gregory Lewis🔸29 Oct 2017 19:15 UTC

140 points

51 comments37 min readEA link

Beware surprising and suspicious convergence

Gregory Lewis🔸24 Jan 2016 19:11 UTC

219 points

21 comments15 min readEA link

At what cost, carnivory?

Gregory Lewis🔸29 Oct 2015 23:37 UTC

12 points

13 comments15 min readEA link

Don’t sweat diet?

Gregory Lewis🔸22 Oct 2015 20:15 UTC

18 points

41 comments5 min readEA link

Log-normal lamentations

Gregory Lewis🔸19 May 2015 21:07 UTC

28 points

11 comments8 min readEA link

How best to aggregate judgements about donations?

Gregory Lewis🔸12 Apr 2015 4:19 UTC

5 points

3 comments1 min readEA link

Saving the World, and Healing the Sick

Gregory Lewis🔸12 Feb 2015 19:03 UTC

18 points

9 comments20 min readEA link