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Gregory Lewis🔸

Karma: 5,992

Mostly bio, occasionally forecasting/​epistemics, sometimes stats/​medicine, too often invective.

Say how much, not more or less ver­sus some­one else

Gregory Lewis🔸Dec 28, 2023, 10:24 PM
100 points
10 comments5 min readEA link

Most* small prob­a­bil­ities aren’t pas­calian

Gregory Lewis🔸Aug 7, 2022, 4:17 PM
212 points
20 comments6 min readEA link

Ter­mi­nate de­liber­a­tion based on re­silience, not certainty

Gregory Lewis🔸Jun 5, 2022, 8:08 PM
152 points
16 comments12 min readEA link

Ra­tional pre­dic­tions of­ten up­date pre­dictably*

Gregory Lewis🔸May 15, 2022, 4:09 PM
144 points
13 comments9 min readEA link

Com­plex clue­less­ness as credal fragility

Gregory Lewis🔸Feb 8, 2021, 4:59 PM
57 points
50 comments23 min readEA link

Take care with no­ta­tion for un­cer­tain quantities

Gregory Lewis🔸Sep 16, 2020, 7:26 PM
39 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

Challenges in eval­u­at­ing fore­caster performance

Gregory Lewis🔸Sep 8, 2020, 8:37 PM
22 points
22 comments5 min readEA link

Use re­silience, in­stead of im­pre­ci­sion, to com­mu­ni­cate uncertainty

Gregory Lewis🔸Jul 18, 2020, 12:09 PM
101 points
34 comments7 min readEA link

Re­duc­ing global catas­trophic biolog­i­cal risks

Gregory Lewis🔸Mar 1, 2020, 8:00 AM
10 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Real­ity is of­ten underpowered

Gregory Lewis🔸Oct 10, 2019, 1:14 PM
236 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

Risk Com­mu­ni­ca­tion Strate­gies for the Very Worst of Cases

Gregory Lewis🔸Mar 9, 2019, 6:56 AM
26 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.centerforhealthsecurity.org)

The per­son-af­fect­ing value of ex­is­ten­tial risk reduction

Gregory Lewis🔸Apr 13, 2018, 1:44 AM
65 points
33 comments4 min readEA link

How frag­ile was his­tory?

Gregory Lewis🔸Feb 2, 2018, 6:23 AM
22 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

In defence of epistemic modesty

Gregory Lewis🔸Oct 29, 2017, 7:15 PM
140 points
51 comments37 min readEA link

Be­ware sur­pris­ing and sus­pi­cious convergence

Gregory Lewis🔸Jan 24, 2016, 7:11 PM
220 points
21 comments15 min readEA link

At what cost, car­nivory?

Gregory Lewis🔸Oct 29, 2015, 11:37 PM
13 points
13 comments15 min readEA link

Don’t sweat diet?

Gregory Lewis🔸Oct 22, 2015, 8:15 PM
18 points
41 comments5 min readEA link

Log-nor­mal lamentations

Gregory Lewis🔸May 19, 2015, 9:07 PM
28 points
11 comments8 min readEA link

How best to ag­gre­gate judge­ments about dona­tions?

Gregory Lewis🔸Apr 12, 2015, 4:19 AM
5 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Sav­ing the World, and Heal­ing the Sick

Gregory Lewis🔸Feb 12, 2015, 7:03 PM
18 points
9 comments20 min readEA link