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Gregory Lewis

Karma: 5,774

Mostly bio, occasionally forecasting/​epistemics, sometimes stats/​medicine, too often invective.

Say how much, not more or less ver­sus some­one else

Gregory Lewis28 Dec 2023 22:24 UTC
99 points
10 comments5 min readEA link

Most* small prob­a­bil­ities aren’t pas­calian

Gregory Lewis7 Aug 2022 16:17 UTC
212 points
20 comments6 min readEA link

Ter­mi­nate de­liber­a­tion based on re­silience, not certainty

Gregory Lewis5 Jun 2022 20:08 UTC
142 points
15 comments10 min readEA link

Ra­tional pre­dic­tions of­ten up­date pre­dictably*

Gregory Lewis15 May 2022 16:09 UTC
143 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

Com­plex clue­less­ness as credal fragility

Gregory Lewis8 Feb 2021 16:59 UTC
62 points
50 comments23 min readEA link

Take care with no­ta­tion for un­cer­tain quantities

Gregory Lewis16 Sep 2020 19:26 UTC
39 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

Challenges in eval­u­at­ing fore­caster performance

Gregory Lewis8 Sep 2020 20:37 UTC
22 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Use re­silience, in­stead of im­pre­ci­sion, to com­mu­ni­cate uncertainty

Gregory Lewis18 Jul 2020 12:09 UTC
103 points
34 comments7 min readEA link

Re­duc­ing global catas­trophic biolog­i­cal risks

Gregory Lewis1 Mar 2020 8:00 UTC
10 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Real­ity is of­ten underpowered

Gregory Lewis10 Oct 2019 13:14 UTC
230 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

Risk Com­mu­ni­ca­tion Strate­gies for the Very Worst of Cases

Gregory Lewis9 Mar 2019 6:56 UTC
26 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.centerforhealthsecurity.org)

The per­son-af­fect­ing value of ex­is­ten­tial risk reduction

Gregory Lewis13 Apr 2018 1:44 UTC
64 points
33 comments4 min readEA link

How frag­ile was his­tory?

Gregory Lewis2 Feb 2018 6:23 UTC
22 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

In defence of epistemic modesty

Gregory Lewis29 Oct 2017 19:15 UTC
139 points
51 comments37 min readEA link

Be­ware sur­pris­ing and sus­pi­cious convergence

Gregory Lewis24 Jan 2016 19:11 UTC
216 points
20 comments15 min readEA link

At what cost, car­nivory?

Gregory Lewis29 Oct 2015 23:37 UTC
12 points
13 comments15 min readEA link

Don’t sweat diet?

Gregory Lewis22 Oct 2015 20:15 UTC
18 points
41 comments5 min readEA link

Log-nor­mal lamentations

Gregory Lewis19 May 2015 21:07 UTC
28 points
11 comments8 min readEA link

How best to ag­gre­gate judge­ments about dona­tions?

Gregory Lewis12 Apr 2015 4:19 UTC
5 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Sav­ing the World, and Heal­ing the Sick

Gregory Lewis12 Feb 2015 19:03 UTC
18 points
9 comments20 min readEA link