Thanks Ramiro! The research article is now up on our website; you can find it here.
JamesHu
Thanks for your engagement with our piece, Ben! We haven’t looked into the zoonotic spillover/pandemic prevention implications of REDD+. Our team’s report doesn’t consider the co-benefits of reducing deforestation that are not already encapsulated in one’s estimated/preferred social cost of carbon (SCC), given the attempt was to constrain the cost of abating a tCO2(e).
As for a very hasty first pass [not to be taken seriously]: I’m thinking that considering pandemic co-benefits is like saying the social cost of forest carbon (SCFC) > SCC. Then there’s your second point, i.e., that SCFCregion A > SCFCregion B. Unfortunately I don’t have a good intuitive sense of these inequalities, nor overall how significant considering the pandemic co-benefit would be for influencing REDD+ regional prioritization. My very rough guess is therefore that the significance – for philanthropists interested in tackling deforestation – would probably depend on (1) the magnitudes of the inequalities, including the frequency/severity of deforestation-induced pandemics, (2) the extent of overlap between forests most prone to pandemic-inducing zoonotic spillover and those with the highest deforestation reduction potential/cost-effectiveness via REDD+, (3) perhaps how promising alternative pandemic prevention strategies are, and (4) maybe even moral weights, risk preferences, and other things I haven’t considered.
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Let’s limit our consideration to upholding international norms and laws of non-aggression, which I think is the crux of your argument for a more hardline stance on Taiwan.
The sentiment of wanting to uphold these norms and laws is admirable, and in an ideal world where they are strong we should be willing to expend significant resources and even risk nuclear conflict to keep those norms that way. But many would argue those norms are already in tatters, in large part due to the US’s repeated and flagrant violations thereof, and that a hardline Western response to Russian/Chinese aggression will have minimal benefit for preserving whatever baseline of norms we still have. (And that is even leaving out that Taiwan has the further complication of being, unlike Ukraine, an unrecognized state, which further dilutes the argument of international norms and laws.) This tilts the cost-benefit analysis significantly toward a less hardline stance.
I’m taking this from one-time 80,000 Hours Podcast guest Robert Wright’s Nonzero Newsletter – in my view, one of the best Substacks out there (I also highly recommend the Wright Show podcast) – which recently had a post calling for peace talks in Ukraine that lays out this line of argument:
At the same time, we should seriously consider the leftist critique of neoliberal foreign policy, which Hfur7c was perhaps, inartfully, trying to espouse: that proactive diplomatic efforts (or even just basic, responsive efforts, which many argue the US did not engage seriously in Ukraine) have great potential to forestall conflict, and that strong military stances in themselves can provoke conflict, an outcome that is then used to justify dispensing with robust diplomatic efforts. See this Twitter thread from the Marxist historian Jake Werner: