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kokotajlod

Karma: 3,088

Most of my stuff (even the stuff of interest to EAs) can be found on LessWrong: https://​​www.lesswrong.com/​​users/​​daniel-kokotajlo

Sim­ple char­i­ta­ble dona­tion app idea

kokotajlodMay 12, 2023, 2:11 AM
90 points
24 comments3 min readEA link

My ver­sion of Si­mu­lacra Levels

kokotajlodApr 26, 2023, 7:06 PM
24 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Re­place­ment for PONR concept

kokotajlodSep 2, 2022, 12:38 AM
14 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

[Question] Growth of pre­dic­tion mar­kets over time?

kokotajlodSep 2, 2021, 1:43 PM
8 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

What 2026 looks like (Daniel’s me­dian fu­ture)

kokotajlodAug 7, 2021, 5:14 AM
38 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Deep­Mind: Gen­er­ally ca­pa­ble agents emerge from open-ended play

kokotajlodJul 27, 2021, 7:35 PM
56 points
10 comments2 min readEA link
(deepmind.com)

Ta­boo “Out­side View”

kokotajlodJun 17, 2021, 9:39 AM
177 points
26 comments8 min readEA link

Vignettes Work­shop (AI Im­pacts)

kokotajlodJun 15, 2021, 11:02 AM
43 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Fun with +12 OOMs of Compute

kokotajlodMar 1, 2021, 9:04 PM
28 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Birds, Brains, Planes, and AI: Against Ap­peals to the Com­plex­ity/​Mys­te­ri­ous­ness/​Effi­ciency of the Brain

kokotajlodJan 18, 2021, 12:39 PM
27 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Against GDP as a met­ric for timelines and take­off speeds

kokotajlod29 Dec 2020 17:50 UTC
47 points
6 comments14 min readEA link

In­cen­tiviz­ing fore­cast­ing via so­cial media

David_Althaus16 Dec 2020 12:11 UTC
70 points
19 comments15 min readEA link

[Question] Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod28 Nov 2020 14:31 UTC
17 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Per­sua­sion Tools: AI takeover with­out AGI or agency?

kokotajlod20 Nov 2020 16:56 UTC
15 points
5 comments10 min readEA link

How Rood­man’s GWP model trans­lates to TAI timelines

kokotajlod16 Nov 2020 14:11 UTC
22 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] How can I bet on short timelines?

kokotajlod7 Nov 2020 12:45 UTC
33 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] What con­sid­er­a­tions in­fluence whether I have more in­fluence over short or long timelines?

kokotajlod5 Nov 2020 19:57 UTC
18 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

AI risk hub in Sin­ga­pore?

kokotajlod29 Oct 2020 11:51 UTC
26 points
4 comments4 min readEA link

Rele­vant pre-AGI possibilities

kokotajlod20 Jun 2020 13:15 UTC
22 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(aiimpacts.org)

Ev­i­dence on good fore­cast­ing prac­tices from the Good Judg­ment Pro­ject: an ac­com­pa­ny­ing blog post

kokotajlod15 Feb 2019 19:14 UTC
79 points
14 comments21 min readEA link