nemeryxu

• nemeryxuJul 29, 2023, 10:46 PM

  14 points

  3 ∶ 1

  on: Why isn’t there a char­ity eval­u­a­tor for longter­mist pro­jects?

  This lack is one (among several) reasons why I haven’t shifted any of my donations toward longtermist causes.

• nemeryxuAug 5, 2022, 5:54 PM

  3 points

  0 ∶ 0

  in reply to: Paolo Bova’s comment on: In­for­ma­tion in risky tech­nol­ogy races

  Thanks for your thoughts!

  1. Good question! I’ll need to think more about this, but my initial impression is that regular surveying of developers about AI progress could help by quantifying their level of uncertainty over the arrival rate of particular milestones, which is likely correlated with how they believe expected capabilities investments map onto progress.

  2. That seems right, though it likely depends upon how substitutable safety research is across firms.

In­for­ma­tion in risky tech­nol­ogy races