The reason why I believe SBI is seminal is that it proves that natural neural networks and even single cells, not necessarily neurons, behave in accordance with clearly defined mathematical rules, which enable us to (a) predict and program the behaviour and morphogenesis of living tissue, organs and organisms, (b) to create synthetic forms of life (minds) which never exist, (c) create mathematical, in silica and other substrate based minds which will perform like or better than biological ones, (d) integrate seamlessly all SBIs across the entire array of substrates.
All these things can be done by scientists in labs or by SBI itself as it evolves if we allow it to do it.
Active inference theory and minds everywhere framework based on it both show that there is no such thing as unintelligent life. All life forms, organs, and even single cells have intelligence on a spectrum.
I don’t know how to better estimate the probability. SBI is here. Its probability is 1.
In two months following our conversation in this white paper you can now find answers to all you questions and the roadmap of AGI development based of the first principle of SBI https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.01354