I am glad to hear your first two points. They do not match my experience. The third is less divergent, but also good news on the margin.
I think it is good practice to note strong disagreements where they exist, but also if I explained every strong disagreement I had I’d never finish the post, and also that would become the topic of discussion (as it partly is now) - I thought this was the right balance. I find your guess as to the reason interesting, as it is the ‘most paradigm affirming’ of the plausible strong disagreements, where it would be the right approach except there are psychological problems (which the paradigm acknowledges in general). I do think that’s a problem, but centrally that’s not it. The problem is closer to what Byrnes is talking about, that competition and preferentially wanting things locally are features rather than bugs, which includes but is broader than markets because the claim of full selflessness goes beyond not wanting to use markets.
I notice I have in the past made an attempt to write the post for that, but that my understandings and writing skills have expanded and my quick skim of it made me think it’s not as good as it could have been. But it’s what is available.
As for the part where I say I’m not allowed to say things, I am saying primarily not that the EA community in particular would be unwelcoming but that there are things that you can get cancelled or otherwise severely punished for saying on the internet, and I’m sure as hell not going to say them on the internet.
Congratulations to the winners.
My question is, now that we have winners, how do we make the best use of this opportunity? What further actions would help people think better about such questions, either those at OP or otherwise?
This is complicated by the caveats. We don’t know which of the points made are the ones the judges found to be interesting or useful, or which ones merely crystalized disagreements, and which ones were mostly rejected.
As is, my expectation is that the authors (of both the winners and other entries) put a lot of effort into this, and the judges a lot of effort into evaluations, and almost no one will know what to do with all of that and the opportunity will by default be wasted.
So if there’s opportunity here, what is it? For me, or for others?
As another commentor notes, at the time I offered a rebuttal to the interest rates post, that I would still stand by almost verbatim, and I’m confused why this post was still judged so highly—or what we should be paying attention to there, beyond the one line ‘the market’s interest rates do not reflect the possibility of transformative AI.’
I will refrain from commenting on the others since I haven’t given them a proper reading yet (or if I did, I don’t remember it).
As a potential experiment/aid here, I created Manifold markets (1,2,3,4,5,6) on whether my review of these six would be retrospectively considered by me a good use of time.