With the promo code--> your first bet up to $1500 is ‘insured’ and refunded in case of loss. IIRC you need to bet the refunded $1500 in another single eligible gamble. I think the net expected value of this offer (after taxes and spreads) is somewhere between about $500 and $700 if your first bet is a 50⁄50 bet, but closer to $1200-$1400 if you take a highly risky first-bet.
Some followup...
If you are ‘playing it reasonably safe’ and make 50-50 bets each time the expected value gain is probably around $700 or so, maybe $600 after taxes. (I think this is a conservative calculation).
2 people could also hedge their bets as noted in posts , reducing the max loss to just a few hundred $ (taxes, house spread).
But “Accountholders who have an existing Caesars Sportsbook and Casino or William Hill account in any other location as of the start of the Promotion Period are not eligible” … so you may not qualify if you did this in a different state.
I looked into the Caesars offer a bit.
With the promo code--> your first bet up to $1500 is ‘insured’ and refunded in case of loss. IIRC you need to bet the refunded $1500 in another single eligible gamble. I think the net expected value of this offer (after taxes and spreads) is somewhere between about $500 and $700 if your first bet is a 50⁄50 bet, but closer to $1200-$1400 if you take a highly risky first-bet.
Some followup...
If you are ‘playing it reasonably safe’ and make 50-50 bets each time the expected value gain is probably around $700 or so, maybe $600 after taxes. (I think this is a conservative calculation).
2 people could also hedge their bets as noted in posts , reducing the max loss to just a few hundred $ (taxes, house spread).
But “Accountholders who have an existing Caesars Sportsbook and Casino or William Hill account in any other location as of the start of the Promotion Period are not eligible” … so you may not qualify if you did this in a different state.