Executive summary: Effective Altruists should apply rough cost-benefit analysis and transparent policy modeling to areas like criminal justice, where UK data suggests increasing incarceration may reduce crime but may not be the most cost-effective or humane approach.
Key points:
Effective Altruism is best understood as a reasoning process that emphasizes probabilistic thinking, quantification of uncertainties, and identifying key arguments—an approach underutilized in policy discussions.
The UK criminal justice system prioritizes justice over crime prevention, but evidence suggests incarceration primarily works through incapacitation rather than deterrence or rehabilitation.
Studies indicate that in the UK, additional incarceration may be more effective at reducing crime than in the US due to differences in prison population sizes and crime margins.
Rough cost-benefit analysis suggests the societal benefits of increasing prison capacity may outweigh the direct costs, but estimates vary depending on methodology.
International comparisons raise questions: some countries have lower crime rates with less incarceration, and rehabilitation-focused systems like Norway’s show dramatic reductions in recidivism.
Even if increased incarceration reduces crime, more humane and cost-effective alternatives like electronic tagging and preventive interventions should be explored.
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Executive summary: Effective Altruists should apply rough cost-benefit analysis and transparent policy modeling to areas like criminal justice, where UK data suggests increasing incarceration may reduce crime but may not be the most cost-effective or humane approach.
Key points:
Effective Altruism is best understood as a reasoning process that emphasizes probabilistic thinking, quantification of uncertainties, and identifying key arguments—an approach underutilized in policy discussions.
The UK criminal justice system prioritizes justice over crime prevention, but evidence suggests incarceration primarily works through incapacitation rather than deterrence or rehabilitation.
Studies indicate that in the UK, additional incarceration may be more effective at reducing crime than in the US due to differences in prison population sizes and crime margins.
Rough cost-benefit analysis suggests the societal benefits of increasing prison capacity may outweigh the direct costs, but estimates vary depending on methodology.
International comparisons raise questions: some countries have lower crime rates with less incarceration, and rehabilitation-focused systems like Norway’s show dramatic reductions in recidivism.
Even if increased incarceration reduces crime, more humane and cost-effective alternatives like electronic tagging and preventive interventions should be explored.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.