Does portfolio theory apply better at the individual level than the community level?
I think the individual level applies if you have risk aversion on a personal level. For example, I care about having personally made a difference, which biases me towards certain individually less risky ideas.
is this “k-level 2” aggregate portfolio a ‘better’ aggregation of everyone’s information than the “k-level 1″ of whatever portfolio emerges from everyone individually optimising their own portfolios?
I think it’s a tough situation because k=2 includes these unsavory implications Jeff and I discuss. But as I wrote, I think k=2 is just what happens when people think about everyone’s donations game-theoretically. If everyone else is thinking in k=2 mode but you’re thinking in k=1 mode, you’re going to get funged such that your value system’s expression in the portfolio could end up being much less than what is “fair”. It’s a bit like how the Nash equilibrium in the Prisoner’s Dilemma is “defect-defect”.
At some point what matters is specific projects...?
I agree with this. My post frames the discussion in terms of cause areas for simplicity and since the lessons generalize to more people, but I think your point is correct.
I think the individual level applies if you have risk aversion on a personal level. For example, I care about having personally made a difference, which biases me towards certain individually less risky ideas.
I think it’s a tough situation because k=2 includes these unsavory implications Jeff and I discuss. But as I wrote, I think k=2 is just what happens when people think about everyone’s donations game-theoretically. If everyone else is thinking in k=2 mode but you’re thinking in k=1 mode, you’re going to get funged such that your value system’s expression in the portfolio could end up being much less than what is “fair”. It’s a bit like how the Nash equilibrium in the Prisoner’s Dilemma is “defect-defect”.
I agree with this. My post frames the discussion in terms of cause areas for simplicity and since the lessons generalize to more people, but I think your point is correct.