I find myself seeking out and examining good sources of news and evidence on Ukraine, so I’ve been following superforecaster and Metaculus estimates about Ukraine a lot lately. Depending on your disposition, this might be bad for mental health, but my investigations have not left me worried about nuclear war.
So, Putin had worse judgement than almost everyone thought, including those expecting him to invade. This could be interpreted as an increased chance that he will use nuclear weapons. But I see it as Putin being severely biased, like my formerly-alive uncle who refused vaccination, rather than being insane. (The difference between these two is that a biased person is more predictable, as long as you have some idea what the biases are; measuring his biases is not easy since he’s not honest, but his actions are instructive. Edit: Vlad Vexler is informative about Putin’s psychology; here’s some key bullet points, though note that since the invasion started, Putin is temporarily more powerful and the regime has gone beyond being just an “informational autocracy”; my sense now is that Putin wants to limit escalation to whatever gets him an appearance of victory domestically—unfortunately, he still overestimates his military powers in Ukraine and it’s hard to say how he’ll respond to his own failures.) Analysts remain convinced that Putin doesn’t want World War 3, so that as long as the free world doesn’t provoke him, he won’t use WMDs. (He’s likely to use horrifying thermobaric weapons, but only against Ukrainian cities.)
Like most Russian soldiers, this war probably took China completely by surprise too. While I’m concerned about China’s support for Russia, overall my impression has been that China wants not only to avoid World War 3, but even to avoid secondary sanctions from the U.S. for supporting Russia too heavily. Did you know that China has an agreement with Ukraine to protect them from nuclear aggression? It is likely, then, that their support of Russia will be limited this year, and those who suffer most will be Ukrainians and Russians.
So, the point I want to make is that I don’t think World War 3 is likely in the near-term, and neither (it seems) do Metaculus forecasters. The chance of WW3 before 2050 is now estimated at 20%, which is maybe 7% higher than the average probability from 2019 to 2021. Another forecast reports a 92% chance that there will be “No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations” before 2024 (down from 94% through much of 2020-2021).
No evidence I’m aware of indicates an imminent threat of nuclear war, but if you think there is a specific path to nuclear war that is underappreciated, let’s maybe discuss that. Of course, even a small chance is scary… but I want to make sure that you’re aware that the chance is small.
I find myself seeking out and examining good sources of news and evidence on Ukraine, so I’ve been following superforecaster and Metaculus estimates about Ukraine a lot lately. Depending on your disposition, this might be bad for mental health, but my investigations have not left me worried about nuclear war.
It strikes me that NATO is rejecting calls to intervene in Ukraine quite strongly, with the chance they will even impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine being only ~5%.
Meanwhile, Putin and his top military planners demonstrated badly impaired judgement. This led them to severe military logistical failures in the early days of the invasion, with some troops confused into thinking they would be greeted as liberators (related: POW speaks), but also to a major underestimate of how strongly the Free World would respond with sanctions. Plus, various corporations are pulling out of Russia. As a result, Russian stocks dropped nearly by half, then rebounded to a drop of about 35% before Russian markets were closed indefinitely.
So, Putin had worse judgement than almost everyone thought, including those expecting him to invade. This could be interpreted as an increased chance that he will use nuclear weapons. But I see it as Putin being severely biased, like my formerly-alive uncle who refused vaccination, rather than being insane. (The difference between these two is that a biased person is more predictable, as long as you have some idea what the biases are; measuring his biases is not easy since he’s not honest, but his actions are instructive. Edit: Vlad Vexler is informative about Putin’s psychology; here’s some key bullet points, though note that since the invasion started, Putin is temporarily more powerful and the regime has gone beyond being just an “informational autocracy”; my sense now is that Putin wants to limit escalation to whatever gets him an appearance of victory domestically—unfortunately, he still overestimates his military powers in Ukraine and it’s hard to say how he’ll respond to his own failures.) Analysts remain convinced that Putin doesn’t want World War 3, so that as long as the free world doesn’t provoke him, he won’t use WMDs. (He’s likely to use horrifying thermobaric weapons, but only against Ukrainian cities.)
Like most Russian soldiers, this war probably took China completely by surprise too. While I’m concerned about China’s support for Russia, overall my impression has been that China wants not only to avoid World War 3, but even to avoid secondary sanctions from the U.S. for supporting Russia too heavily. Did you know that China has an agreement with Ukraine to protect them from nuclear aggression? It is likely, then, that their support of Russia will be limited this year, and those who suffer most will be Ukrainians and Russians.
So, the point I want to make is that I don’t think World War 3 is likely in the near-term, and neither (it seems) do Metaculus forecasters. The chance of WW3 before 2050 is now estimated at 20%, which is maybe 7% higher than the average probability from 2019 to 2021. Another forecast reports a 92% chance that there will be “No Non-Test Nuclear Detonations” before 2024 (down from 94% through much of 2020-2021).
No evidence I’m aware of indicates an imminent threat of nuclear war, but if you think there is a specific path to nuclear war that is underappreciated, let’s maybe discuss that. Of course, even a small chance is scary… but I want to make sure that you’re aware that the chance is small.