However, I think recent events should make the EA community ask themselves and each other “what should we do if these risks increase?” At what probability of WW3 do we start shifting EA resources towards work on prevention / recovery? At what chance do we as a community start moving to safer locations?
My family is trying to formulate a plan that’s something like “if the probability of WW3 in the next year surpasses 33%, then we’re going to temporarily relocate to another country until the tensions subside peacefully.”Obviously that’s not possible for many, but talking about it has settled our nerves a bit.
Hi, I’m afraid I don’t have any terribly helpful advice. My family and other people I know are having the same struggle.
The best I can come up with is that the metaculus community gives a 20% chance of WW3 breaking out before 2050. That’s definitely way too high, but I assume that most of the probability mass is distributed somewhat evenly over time. The same community also places a 2% chance on a NATO nation invoking article 5 in the next year, which would presumably not equate to nuclear war in the same circumstance.
However, I think recent events should make the EA community ask themselves and each other “what should we do if these risks increase?” At what probability of WW3 do we start shifting EA resources towards work on prevention / recovery? At what chance do we as a community start moving to safer locations?
My family is trying to formulate a plan that’s something like “if the probability of WW3 in the next year surpasses 33%, then we’re going to temporarily relocate to another country until the tensions subside peacefully.”Obviously that’s not possible for many, but talking about it has settled our nerves a bit.
I hope you find some peace.