When Greaves and MacAskill compare how many lives are saved by donating to AI safety versus the AMF, they compare these numbers as if they were equally as reliable and equally as capable of capturing something about reality.
I don’t think this is true. Whenever Greaves and MacAskill carry out a longtermist EV calculation in the paper it seems clear to me that their aim is to illustrate a point rather than calculate a reliable EV of a longtermist intervention. Their world government EV calculation starts with the words “suppose that...”. They also go on to say:
Of course, in either case one could debate these numbers. But, to repeat, all we need is that there be one course of action such that one ought to have a non-minuscule credence in that action’s having non-negligible long-lasting influence. Given the multitude of plausible ways by which one could have such influence, diverse points of view are likely to agree on this claim
This is the point they are trying to get across by doing the EV calculations.
I don’t think this is true. Whenever Greaves and MacAskill carry out a longtermist EV calculation in the paper it seems clear to me that their aim is to illustrate a point rather than calculate a reliable EV of a longtermist intervention. Their world government EV calculation starts with the words “suppose that...”. They also go on to say:
This is the point they are trying to get across by doing the EV calculations.