What do you think about using ranges of probabilities instead of single (and seemingly arbitrary) sharp probabilities and doing sensitivity analysis? I suppose when there’s no hard data, there might be no good bounds for the ranges, too, although Scott Alexander has argued against using arbitrarily small probabilities.
Yeah I suppose I would still be skeptical of using ranges in the absence of data (you could just apply all my objections to the upper and low bounds of the range). But I’m definitely all for sensitivity analysis when there are data backing up the estimates!
What do you think about using ranges of probabilities instead of single (and seemingly arbitrary) sharp probabilities and doing sensitivity analysis? I suppose when there’s no hard data, there might be no good bounds for the ranges, too, although Scott Alexander has argued against using arbitrarily small probabilities.
Yeah I suppose I would still be skeptical of using ranges in the absence of data (you could just apply all my objections to the upper and low bounds of the range). But I’m definitely all for sensitivity analysis when there are data backing up the estimates!