I think you should specify a time period (e.g. the next 100 years) or feasibly preventable existential catastrophes. Could the heat death of the universe be an existential catastrophe? If so, I think the future population might be infinite, since anything less might be considered an existential catastrophe.
I’m not the author of this post, but I don’t have only one probability distribution for this, and I don’t think there’s any good way to justify any particular one (although you might rule some out for being less reasonable).
I think you should specify a time period (e.g. the next 100 years) or feasibly preventable existential catastrophes. Could the heat death of the universe be an existential catastrophe? If so, I think the future population might be infinite, since anything less might be considered an existential catastrophe.
I’m not the author of this post, but I don’t have only one probability distribution for this, and I don’t think there’s any good way to justify any particular one (although you might rule some out for being less reasonable).