What is your probability distribution across the size of the future population, provided there is not an existential catastrophe?
Do you for example think there is a more than 50% chance that it is greater than 10 billion?
I don’t have a probability distribution across the size of the future population. That said, I’m happy to interpret the question in the colloquial, non-formal sense, and just take >50% to mean “likely”. In that case, sure, I think it’s likely that the population will exceed 10 billion. Credences shouldn’t be taken any more seriously than that—epistemologically equivalent to survey questions where the respondent is asked to tick a very unlikely, unlikely, unsure, likely, very likely box.
I don’t have a probability distribution across the size of the future population. That said, I’m happy to interpret the question in the colloquial, non-formal sense, and just take >50% to mean “likely”. In that case, sure, I think it’s likely that the population will exceed 10 billion. Credences shouldn’t be taken any more seriously than that—epistemologically equivalent to survey questions where the respondent is asked to tick a very unlikely, unlikely, unsure, likely, very likely box.