Sure—Nukes exist. They’ve been deployed before, and we know they have incredible destructive power. We know that many countries have them, and have threatened to use them. We know the protocols are in place for their use.
To me this seems like you’re making a rough model with a bunch of assumptions like that past use, threats and protocols increase the risks, but not saying by how much or putting confidences or estimates on anything (even ranges). Why not think the risks are too low to matter despite past use, threats and protocols?
Sure—Nukes exist. They’ve been deployed before, and we know they have incredible destructive power. We know that many countries have them, and have threatened to use them. We know the protocols are in place for their use.
To me this seems like you’re making a rough model with a bunch of assumptions like that past use, threats and protocols increase the risks, but not saying by how much or putting confidences or estimates on anything (even ranges). Why not think the risks are too low to matter despite past use, threats and protocols?