I agree that longtermism is core part of the movement, and probably commands a larger share of adherents than I imply. However, I’m not sure to what extent strong longtermism is supported. My sense is that while most people agree with the general thrust of the philosophy, many would be uncomfortable with “ignoring the effects” of the near term, and remain focused on near-term problems. I didn’t want to claim that a majority of EAs supported longtermism broadly-defined, but then only criticize a subset of those views.
I hadn’t seen the results of the EA Survey—fascinating.
I agree with AGB’s comment, but I would also like to add that strong longtermism seems like a moral perspective with much less “natural” appeal, and thus much less ultimate growth potential, than neartermist EA causes such as global poverty reduction or even animal welfare.
For example, I’m a Program Officer in the longtermist part of Open Philanthropy, but >80% of my grantmaking dollars go to people who are not longtermists (who are nevertheless doing work I think is helpful for certain longtermist goals). Why? Because there are almost no longtermists anywhere in the world, and even fewer who happen to have the skills and interests that make them a fit for my particular grantmaking remit. Meanwhile, Open Philanthropy makes far more grants in neartermist causes (though this might change in the future), in part because there are tons of people who are excited about doing cost-effective things to help humans and animals who are alive and visibly suffering today, and not so many people who are excited about trying to help hypothetical people living millions of years in the future.
Of course to some degree this is because longtermism is fairly new, though I would date it at least as far back as Bostrom’s “Astronomical Waste” paper from 2003.
I would also like to note that many people I speak to who identify (like me) as “primarily longtermist” have sympathy (like me) for something like “worldview diversification,” given the deep uncertainties involved in the quest to help others as much as possible. So e.g. while I spend most of my own time on longtermism-motivated efforts, I also help out with other EA causes in various ways (e.g. this giant project on animal sentience), and I link to or talk positively about GiveWell top charities a lot, and I mostly avoid eating non-AWA meat, and so on… rather than treating these non-longtermist priorities as a rounding error. Of course some longtermists take a different approach than I do, but I’m hardly alone in my approach.
Thanks AGB, this is helpful.
I agree that longtermism is core part of the movement, and probably commands a larger share of adherents than I imply. However, I’m not sure to what extent strong longtermism is supported. My sense is that while most people agree with the general thrust of the philosophy, many would be uncomfortable with “ignoring the effects” of the near term, and remain focused on near-term problems. I didn’t want to claim that a majority of EAs supported longtermism broadly-defined, but then only criticize a subset of those views.
I hadn’t seen the results of the EA Survey—fascinating.
I know I’m late to the discussion, but…
I agree with AGB’s comment, but I would also like to add that strong longtermism seems like a moral perspective with much less “natural” appeal, and thus much less ultimate growth potential, than neartermist EA causes such as global poverty reduction or even animal welfare.
For example, I’m a Program Officer in the longtermist part of Open Philanthropy, but >80% of my grantmaking dollars go to people who are not longtermists (who are nevertheless doing work I think is helpful for certain longtermist goals). Why? Because there are almost no longtermists anywhere in the world, and even fewer who happen to have the skills and interests that make them a fit for my particular grantmaking remit. Meanwhile, Open Philanthropy makes far more grants in neartermist causes (though this might change in the future), in part because there are tons of people who are excited about doing cost-effective things to help humans and animals who are alive and visibly suffering today, and not so many people who are excited about trying to help hypothetical people living millions of years in the future.
Of course to some degree this is because longtermism is fairly new, though I would date it at least as far back as Bostrom’s “Astronomical Waste” paper from 2003.
I would also like to note that many people I speak to who identify (like me) as “primarily longtermist” have sympathy (like me) for something like “worldview diversification,” given the deep uncertainties involved in the quest to help others as much as possible. So e.g. while I spend most of my own time on longtermism-motivated efforts, I also help out with other EA causes in various ways (e.g. this giant project on animal sentience), and I link to or talk positively about GiveWell top charities a lot, and I mostly avoid eating non-AWA meat, and so on… rather than treating these non-longtermist priorities as a rounding error. Of course some longtermists take a different approach than I do, but I’m hardly alone in my approach.