Thanks for putting your thoughts together, I only accidentally stumbled on this and I think it would be a great post, too.
I was really surprised about you giving ~20% for TAI this century, and am still curious about your reasoning, because it seems to diverge strongly from your peers. Why do you find inside-view based arguments less convincing? I’ve updated pretty strongly on the deep (reinforcement) learning successes of the last years, and on our growing computational and algorithmic level understanding of the human mind. I’ve found AI Impacts’ collection of inside- and outside-view arguments against current AI leading to AGI fairly unconvincing, e.g. the list of “lacking capacities” seem to me (as someone following CogSci, ML and AI Safety related blogs) to get a lot of productive research attention.
Thanks for putting your thoughts together, I only accidentally stumbled on this and I think it would be a great post, too.
I was really surprised about you giving ~20% for TAI this century, and am still curious about your reasoning, because it seems to diverge strongly from your peers. Why do you find inside-view based arguments less convincing? I’ve updated pretty strongly on the deep (reinforcement) learning successes of the last years, and on our growing computational and algorithmic level understanding of the human mind. I’ve found AI Impacts’ collection of inside- and outside-view arguments against current AI leading to AGI fairly unconvincing, e.g. the list of “lacking capacities” seem to me (as someone following CogSci, ML and AI Safety related blogs) to get a lot of productive research attention.