Would the price of an impact certificate be determined by the impact the organization is generating, so it is like buying impact stocks? A maximum number of impact certificates should be specified upon the first certificates’ issuance to prevent the possibility of infinite certificate value dilution, which could disincentivize investments. Buyers should invest in organizations of high expected impact/cost. Organizations would seek to increase their impact/cost ratio to sell certificates at higher value. This would incentivize growth (appealing investors) and innovation (selling certificates at a higher price).
The impact units can be proxies to wellbeing-adjusted life years, such as counterfactual education achieved, healthcare affected, animal welfare determinants implemented, etc. It should be ok to have a few units, just like several currencies.
This would constitute a market solution to systemic change. For example, when education increase becomes more affordable, the price of an education impact certificate increases (higher productivity of an organization). Then, investors may be interested in purchasing healthcare certificates (which are not experiencing a price surge) while waiting for the price of education certificates to fall due to increased supply.
I think that this will be extremely useful for systemic change, can be profitable to investors apt in impact prediction, and can benefit entrepreneurs skilled in impact cost reduction.
I also thought of certificates which would pay a premium if a public benefit threshold is met. This could also use the EA broader community prediction capacity in a profitable way. The certificate premium would have to be set so that:
[Issuer’s expected loss] Certificate price*Certificate premium %*Probability of the threshold with this premium incentive being met
<
[Issuer’s expected profit] Certificate price*Financial return on investment from the time of issue to the time of evaluation
+
[Additional public benefit] Expected public benefit of issuing the certificate additional to a no certificate incentive scenario
Would the price of an impact certificate be determined by the impact the organization is generating, so it is like buying impact stocks? A maximum number of impact certificates should be specified upon the first certificates’ issuance to prevent the possibility of infinite certificate value dilution, which could disincentivize investments. Buyers should invest in organizations of high expected impact/cost. Organizations would seek to increase their impact/cost ratio to sell certificates at higher value. This would incentivize growth (appealing investors) and innovation (selling certificates at a higher price).
The impact units can be proxies to wellbeing-adjusted life years, such as counterfactual education achieved, healthcare affected, animal welfare determinants implemented, etc. It should be ok to have a few units, just like several currencies.
This would constitute a market solution to systemic change. For example, when education increase becomes more affordable, the price of an education impact certificate increases (higher productivity of an organization). Then, investors may be interested in purchasing healthcare certificates (which are not experiencing a price surge) while waiting for the price of education certificates to fall due to increased supply.
I think that this will be extremely useful for systemic change, can be profitable to investors apt in impact prediction, and can benefit entrepreneurs skilled in impact cost reduction.
I also thought of certificates which would pay a premium if a public benefit threshold is met. This could also use the EA broader community prediction capacity in a profitable way. The certificate premium would have to be set so that:
[Issuer’s expected loss] Certificate price*Certificate premium %*Probability of the threshold with this premium incentive being met
<
[Issuer’s expected profit] Certificate price*Financial return on investment from the time of issue to the time of evaluation
+
[Additional public benefit] Expected public benefit of issuing the certificate additional to a no certificate incentive scenario