The point about accounting for uncertainty is very well taken. I had not considered possible asymmetries in the effects of uncertainty when writing this.
On longtermism generally, I think my language in the post was probably less favorable to longtermism than I would ultimately endorse. As you say, the value of the future remains exceptionally large even after reduction by a few orders of magnitude, a fact that should hopefully be clear from the units (trillions of life-years) used in the graphs above.
If I have time in future, I may try to create new graphs for sensitivity and value that take into account uncertainty.
The point about accounting for uncertainty is very well taken. I had not considered possible asymmetries in the effects of uncertainty when writing this.
On longtermism generally, I think my language in the post was probably less favorable to longtermism than I would ultimately endorse. As you say, the value of the future remains exceptionally large even after reduction by a few orders of magnitude, a fact that should hopefully be clear from the units (trillions of life-years) used in the graphs above.
If I have time in future, I may try to create new graphs for sensitivity and value that take into account uncertainty.