So first, the story in time is stripped of context—it is impossible to judge from that story being told by a journalist how serious it is, because I know the journalist stripped out any information that would make it seem less bad.
Second, that one individual in a group of thousands did something is never, ever, ever enough to judge the whole group—though the official reaction to that individual of course might be. I think that you are referring to Owen not being banned from all community positions immediately after this was reported to the community team by the anonymous woman. If you judge that as a reason to say the whole movement yas a problem, and I see it as totally reasonable, we disagree.
But yes: That some priests sexually abuse children is irrelevant. There are tens of thousands. That a reporter claims that covering this up is a systematic issue is something that I will only believe if the reporter does the work to prove it. My extremely uninformed impression was that this had been proven in that case, but you correctly have pointed out to me that I should lower my confidence in the view that the catholic church pre 2010 or so had a real problem with sexual abuse.
Second, that one individual in a group of thousands did something is never, ever, ever enough to judge the whole group—though the official reaction to that individual of course might be.
Never, ever, ever? Are you saying you’d put a 0% chance that applying any kind of judgement on the group based on the actions of one individual is appropriate? This just seems clearly misguided.
In any case, I never made the claim that “Owen not being banned from all community positions immediately after this was reported to the community team by the anonymous woman” means that the EA movement as a whole has a problem, that’s a strawman. I just expressed skepticism around your view that base rates are a necessary condition for you to consider something good evidence, by asking you whether there was anything at all that was qualitatively bad enough such that even 1 case would make you think it would be reasonable for a woman to conclude that EA in the Bay area, or even EA more broadly, isn’t a safe space for them. but sounds like you think the answer is a firm and absolute no, which is pretty surprising to me.
I think we might be attaching different concepts to the same words here.
When you say that one incident could indicate there is a problem, are you including the way the surrounding community reacts in what you mean by the ‘incident’, or does the ‘incident’ only include the fact that one individual who was part of the community acted that way?
So first, the story in time is stripped of context—it is impossible to judge from that story being told by a journalist how serious it is, because I know the journalist stripped out any information that would make it seem less bad.
Second, that one individual in a group of thousands did something is never, ever, ever enough to judge the whole group—though the official reaction to that individual of course might be. I think that you are referring to Owen not being banned from all community positions immediately after this was reported to the community team by the anonymous woman. If you judge that as a reason to say the whole movement yas a problem, and I see it as totally reasonable, we disagree.
But yes: That some priests sexually abuse children is irrelevant. There are tens of thousands. That a reporter claims that covering this up is a systematic issue is something that I will only believe if the reporter does the work to prove it. My extremely uninformed impression was that this had been proven in that case, but you correctly have pointed out to me that I should lower my confidence in the view that the catholic church pre 2010 or so had a real problem with sexual abuse.
Thank you
Never, ever, ever? Are you saying you’d put a 0% chance that applying any kind of judgement on the group based on the actions of one individual is appropriate? This just seems clearly misguided.
In any case, I never made the claim that “Owen not being banned from all community positions immediately after this was reported to the community team by the anonymous woman” means that the EA movement as a whole has a problem, that’s a strawman. I just expressed skepticism around your view that base rates are a necessary condition for you to consider something good evidence, by asking you whether there was anything at all that was qualitatively bad enough such that even 1 case would make you think it would be reasonable for a woman to conclude that EA in the Bay area, or even EA more broadly, isn’t a safe space for them. but sounds like you think the answer is a firm and absolute no, which is pretty surprising to me.
I think we might be attaching different concepts to the same words here.
When you say that one incident could indicate there is a problem, are you including the way the surrounding community reacts in what you mean by the ‘incident’, or does the ‘incident’ only include the fact that one individual who was part of the community acted that way?