Isn’t there a similar argument to covid – the best case scenario is bounded at zero hours lost, while the bound on the worst case is very high (losing tens of thousands of hours), so increasing uncertainty will tend to drag up the mean?
The current forecasts try to account for a bunch of uncertainty, but we should also add in model uncertainty – and model uncertainty seems like it could be really high (for the reasons in Dan’s comment). So this would suggest we should round up rather than down.
Isn’t there a similar argument to covid – the best case scenario is bounded at zero hours lost, while the bound on the worst case is very high (losing tens of thousands of hours), so increasing uncertainty will tend to drag up the mean?
The current forecasts try to account for a bunch of uncertainty, but we should also add in model uncertainty – and model uncertainty seems like it could be really high (for the reasons in Dan’s comment). So this would suggest we should round up rather than down.