On the other hand, the critic updated me towards higher numbers on p(nuke london|any nuke). Though I assume Samotsvety have already read it, so not sure how to take that into account. But given that uncertainty, given that that number only comes into play in confusing worlds where everyone’s models are broken, and given Samotsvety’s 5x higher unconditional number, I will update at least a bit in that direction.
On the other hand, the critic updated me towards higher numbers on p(nuke london|any nuke). Though I assume Samotsvety have already read it, so not sure how to take that into account. But given that uncertainty, given that that number only comes into play in confusing worlds where everyone’s models are broken, and given Samotsvety’s 5x higher unconditional number, I will update at least a bit in that direction.