I understand why this would be beyond the scope of this forecast, and maybe it’s simply too chaotic to forecast reasonably, but I think from the perspective of making a personal decision what I wish there were here is a forecast on the likely regional outcome of a nuclear weapon detonating on London (or any other major city). Something like a forecast, conditional of a nuclear weapon detonating on London, that an escaped Londoner stays alive >1 year somewhere not directly hit in the UK vs >1 year in New Zealand, given baseline but minimal disaster prep.
Mostly I just bring this up because the cost of leaving the direct blast/fallout zone of a major city by travelling an hour or two is significantly lower than the cost of say, moving a family back and forth from New Zealand each time there is an escalatory step taken. If the only reasonable escape option is a significant trip to the Southern Hemisphere then it changes the cost side of the calculus pretty drastically for a personal decision (vs. just getting out of the immediate danger radius).
This is a fantastic forecast, thank you.
I understand why this would be beyond the scope of this forecast, and maybe it’s simply too chaotic to forecast reasonably, but I think from the perspective of making a personal decision what I wish there were here is a forecast on the likely regional outcome of a nuclear weapon detonating on London (or any other major city). Something like a forecast, conditional of a nuclear weapon detonating on London, that an escaped Londoner stays alive >1 year somewhere not directly hit in the UK vs >1 year in New Zealand, given baseline but minimal disaster prep.
Mostly I just bring this up because the cost of leaving the direct blast/fallout zone of a major city by travelling an hour or two is significantly lower than the cost of say, moving a family back and forth from New Zealand each time there is an escalatory step taken. If the only reasonable escape option is a significant trip to the Southern Hemisphere then it changes the cost side of the calculus pretty drastically for a personal decision (vs. just getting out of the immediate danger radius).