I think the biggest bias here is that most donors would like to be able to point to their clear successes and the people they helped. For most folks, this leans them against x-risk because a) you’ll very likely fail to lower x-risk b) even if you succeed, you usually won’t be able to demonstrate it.
On the other hand, it’s also harder to tell if you’ve failed.
Like Ben, I doubt this kind of analysis is going to change people’s minds much one way or the other.
I think the biggest bias here is that most donors would like to be able to point to their clear successes and the people they helped. For most folks, this leans them against x-risk because a) you’ll very likely fail to lower x-risk b) even if you succeed, you usually won’t be able to demonstrate it.
On the other hand, it’s also harder to tell if you’ve failed.
Like Ben, I doubt this kind of analysis is going to change people’s minds much one way or the other.