I’m using current prices as the key indication of how scarce something is (and is expected to be in the future). So if the price goes up in financial markets, it has become more scarce.
So I completely agree. If I want the best guess about how scarce something will be in future I look at commodity and futures markets. It’s far from perfect, and it won’t always indicate the size of future risks, but it’s much more reliable than any one person’s view.
On the Nymex, they currently go out to Dec 2024. That contract appears to trade less than once a week.
There might be occasional contracts for more distant years traded between institutional investors that don’t get publicly reported, but the low volume on publicly traded contracts suggests people just aren’t interested in trading such contracts.
The longest timescale I’ve ever found on Bloomberg is 5 years, but it wouldn’t surprise me if people were trading contracts further out, with the prices not being posted on free websites.
I’m using current prices as the key indication of how scarce something is (and is expected to be in the future). So if the price goes up in financial markets, it has become more scarce.
So I completely agree. If I want the best guess about how scarce something will be in future I look at commodity and futures markets. It’s far from perfect, and it won’t always indicate the size of future risks, but it’s much more reliable than any one person’s view.
Does anyone know if futures markets for crude oil exist on more than a 10-year time frame?
On the Nymex, they currently go out to Dec 2024. That contract appears to trade less than once a week.
There might be occasional contracts for more distant years traded between institutional investors that don’t get publicly reported, but the low volume on publicly traded contracts suggests people just aren’t interested in trading such contracts.
The longest timescale I’ve ever found on Bloomberg is 5 years, but it wouldn’t surprise me if people were trading contracts further out, with the prices not being posted on free websites.
Right, and I think options markets might go a step further and quantify future risks.