@Simon_Grimm and me ended up also organizing a forecasting tournament. It went really well, people seemed to like it a lot, so thanks for the inspiration and the instructions!
One thing we did differently
we hanged posters for each question in the main hallway because we thought it would make the forecasts more visible/present and it would be interesting to see what others write down on the poster as their forecast—I would likely do this again, even though hammering all the numbers into an excel sheet was some effort
Questions we used
1. Will the probability of Laschet becoming the next German chancellor be higher than 50% on Hypermind on Sunday, 3pm?
2. Will more than 30 people make a forecast in this tournament?
3. Will one person among the participants do the Giving What We Can pledge during the weekend?
4. During scoring on Sunday before dinner, will two randomly chosen participants report having talked to each other during the weekend? Needs to be more than „Hi“!
5. At the end of Sunday‘s lunch, will there be leftover food in the pots?
6. At Sunday‘s breakfast at 9am, will more than 10 people wear an EA shirt?
7. Will a randomly chosen participant have animal suffering as their current top cause?
8. Will a randomly chosen participant have risks associated with AI as their top cause?
9. At breakfast on Sunday at 9am, will more than half have read at least half of Doing Good Better?
10. Will there be more packages of Queal than Huel at Sunday‘s breakfast?
11. Will there be any rain up until Sunday, 5pm?
12. Will you get into the top 3 forecasters for all other questions except this one?
13. Will participants overall overestimate their probability of getting into the top three?
14. Will more people arrive from the South of Germany than from the North?
15. On average, did people pay more than the standard fee of 100€?
@Simon_Grimm and me ended up also organizing a forecasting tournament. It went really well, people seemed to like it a lot, so thanks for the inspiration and the instructions!
One thing we did differently
we hanged posters for each question in the main hallway because we thought it would make the forecasts more visible/present and it would be interesting to see what others write down on the poster as their forecast—I would likely do this again, even though hammering all the numbers into an excel sheet was some effort
Questions we used
1. Will the probability of Laschet becoming the next German chancellor be higher than 50% on Hypermind on Sunday, 3pm?
2. Will more than 30 people make a forecast in this tournament?
3. Will one person among the participants do the Giving What We Can pledge during the weekend?
4. During scoring on Sunday before dinner, will two randomly chosen participants report having talked to each other during the weekend? Needs to be more than „Hi“!
5. At the end of Sunday‘s lunch, will there be leftover food in the pots?
6. At Sunday‘s breakfast at 9am, will more than 10 people wear an EA shirt?
7. Will a randomly chosen participant have animal suffering as their current top cause?
8. Will a randomly chosen participant have risks associated with AI as their top cause?
9. At breakfast on Sunday at 9am, will more than half have read at least half of Doing Good Better?
10. Will there be more packages of Queal than Huel at Sunday‘s breakfast?
11. Will there be any rain up until Sunday, 5pm?
12. Will you get into the top 3 forecasters for all other questions except this one?
13. Will participants overall overestimate their probability of getting into the top three?
14. Will more people arrive from the South of Germany than from the North?
15. On average, did people pay more than the standard fee of 100€?