Thanks for this survey. I think we should not conclude based on this survey whether to use Longtermism or Zukunftsschutz. To get a deeper understanding what could work it would be helpful to have a more detailed survey and I would suggest some changes to the questions: (1) The sample size could be increased to allow for a representative sample and for analysing how different groups (such as Academics, PhDs, age-groups, discipline in university) evaluate the concept and terms and whether they have heard of it before. Maybe the survey could focus on academics. (2a)”Future generations” in the first questions may be more associated with the general concept of sustainability where this phrase is used for decades as well although it has a more short-term vibe (e.g. 2-4 generations not 100s). For most people familiar with the concept of sustainability to protect future generations, this would not be perceived as a concept differentiated from that in my estimation. Vorschlag “X” ist die Einstellung, dass die langfristige Entwicklung und das Überleben der Menschheit stärker priorisiert werden soll.” (low certainty regarding this framing of the question) (2b) The example of pandemic preparedness in the 2nd question could be misleading for for people who hear about the concept Longtermism for the first time. Probably most people would associate it with Covid from a near-term perspective (e.g. avoiding future lockdowns, less economic damage) and not think of GCBR. I have no clear solution on how to better phrase the question but it should at least touch the concept of X-risk or positively framed a thriving future of humanity. Maybe one could talk say “Clara, überzeugte X, macht sich dafür stark, deutlich mehr Geld in die Prävention von Katastrophen zu investieren, die das Überleben der Menschheit gefährden (zum Beispiel Pandemien, Asteorideneinschläge, böse&mächtige künstliche Intelligenzen, usw.)” (medium certainty regarding this framing of the question, low certainty for the AI example.) A positive framing is much harder to find.
(3) Additionally to having a survey among the general public or academics in general you could simply start a survey among German EAs who are aware of the LT framework and allow for qualitative comments on the different words next to a rating on a scale.
(1)I agree that it would be good to have more data. However, I think the evidence is strong enough to conclude that framing it as “Longtermism” is likely to be accepted by most people. Furthermore, I think the point of “Longtermism” already being used by media means there should at least be some content with this framing as an answer to those critical reviews.
I don’t have the time to conduct a bigger survey, especially not for more difficult groups that have a higher bar for being surveyed. Still, I encourage others to do so. I can offer funding for a project like that as well.
I may change my mind if you a) have some clear downsides in mind with using “Longtermism” or b) think your framing would bring very different results.
re (3) I think the competition we had and this post are the best opportunities for German EAs to give their opinions on the words and I encourage more people to do so.
Thanks for this survey. I think we should not conclude based on this survey whether to use Longtermism or Zukunftsschutz. To get a deeper understanding what could work it would be helpful to have a more detailed survey and I would suggest some changes to the questions:
(1) The sample size could be increased to allow for a representative sample and for analysing how different groups (such as Academics, PhDs, age-groups, discipline in university) evaluate the concept and terms and whether they have heard of it before. Maybe the survey could focus on academics.
(2a)”Future generations” in the first questions may be more associated with the general concept of sustainability where this phrase is used for decades as well although it has a more short-term vibe (e.g. 2-4 generations not 100s). For most people familiar with the concept of sustainability to protect future generations, this would not be perceived as a concept differentiated from that in my estimation. Vorschlag “X” ist die Einstellung, dass die langfristige Entwicklung und das Überleben der Menschheit stärker priorisiert werden soll.” (low certainty regarding this framing of the question)
(2b) The example of pandemic preparedness in the 2nd question could be misleading for for people who hear about the concept Longtermism for the first time. Probably most people would associate it with Covid from a near-term perspective (e.g. avoiding future lockdowns, less economic damage) and not think of GCBR. I have no clear solution on how to better phrase the question but it should at least touch the concept of X-risk or positively framed a thriving future of humanity. Maybe one could talk say “Clara, überzeugte X, macht sich dafür stark, deutlich mehr Geld in die Prävention von Katastrophen zu investieren, die das Überleben der Menschheit gefährden (zum Beispiel Pandemien, Asteorideneinschläge, böse&mächtige künstliche Intelligenzen, usw.)” (medium certainty regarding this framing of the question, low certainty for the AI example.)
A positive framing is much harder to find.
(3) Additionally to having a survey among the general public or academics in general you could simply start a survey among German EAs who are aware of the LT framework and allow for qualitative comments on the different words next to a rating on a scale.
(1)I agree that it would be good to have more data. However, I think the evidence is strong enough to conclude that framing it as “Longtermism” is likely to be accepted by most people. Furthermore, I think the point of “Longtermism” already being used by media means there should at least be some content with this framing as an answer to those critical reviews.
I don’t have the time to conduct a bigger survey, especially not for more difficult groups that have a higher bar for being surveyed. Still, I encourage others to do so. I can offer funding for a project like that as well.
I may change my mind if you a) have some clear downsides in mind with using “Longtermism” or b) think your framing would bring very different results.
re (3) I think the competition we had and this post are the best opportunities for German EAs to give their opinions on the words and I encourage more people to do so.