Cheers for engaging James, I appreciate you spending the time on this.
On your second point about timelines: I agree to the extent that talking about theories of victory in fine-grained detailwould only be more relevant on shorter timelines. But even on longer timelines (e.g. whether it’s 50 or 200 years), I’d argue we need theories of victory in broad strokes—at least outlining what major outcomes we are reasonably confident would need to happen. Otherwise how can we make bets on what capacities we need to build now? For example, can we be confident that we’re currently investing enough in mechanisms to shift public opinion, or our ability to engage in lobbying? These are just examples—the main point is, I think we should map the terrain even if roughly so we have a better sense of where to walk.
On the “one approach” claim: This is a fair point, it’s probably the least prevalent of the three characteristics I ascribe to short-term pragmatism, and I was a bit hesitant about it. I think it’s largely absent amongst organisational leaders (though I wouldn’t say zero). I decided to include it anyway as I have encountered it plenty in broader movement culture from different camps, and I think culture amongst non-leaders still matters. I’ve seen e.g. claims that things like cage-free, nonviolent disruption, and more recently very often alt-proteins, are “the most effective thing” and the key to changing things for animals. But overall I think in recent years, we’ve moved away from searching for silver bullets and more towards acknowledging that multiple approaches are needed.
Cheers for engaging James, I appreciate you spending the time on this.
On your second point about timelines: I agree to the extent that talking about theories of victory in fine-grained detail would only be more relevant on shorter timelines. But even on longer timelines (e.g. whether it’s 50 or 200 years), I’d argue we need theories of victory in broad strokes—at least outlining what major outcomes we are reasonably confident would need to happen. Otherwise how can we make bets on what capacities we need to build now? For example, can we be confident that we’re currently investing enough in mechanisms to shift public opinion, or our ability to engage in lobbying? These are just examples—the main point is, I think we should map the terrain even if roughly so we have a better sense of where to walk.
On the “one approach” claim: This is a fair point, it’s probably the least prevalent of the three characteristics I ascribe to short-term pragmatism, and I was a bit hesitant about it. I think it’s largely absent amongst organisational leaders (though I wouldn’t say zero). I decided to include it anyway as I have encountered it plenty in broader movement culture from different camps, and I think culture amongst non-leaders still matters. I’ve seen e.g. claims that things like cage-free, nonviolent disruption, and more recently very often alt-proteins, are “the most effective thing” and the key to changing things for animals. But overall I think in recent years, we’ve moved away from searching for silver bullets and more towards acknowledging that multiple approaches are needed.