Thanks, yeah, I like your point there that âfalse negatives are costlier than false positives in this caseâ, and so even <50% credence can warrant significant action. (I wouldnât literally say we should âact as if 3H is trueâ in all respectsâas per Nunoâs comment, uncertainty may justify some compounding âpatient philanthropyâ, which could have high stakes if the hinge comes later. But thatâs a minor quibble: I take myself to be broadly in agreement with your larger gist.)
Thanks, yeah, I like your point there that âfalse negatives are costlier than false positives in this caseâ, and so even <50% credence can warrant significant action. (I wouldnât literally say we should âact as if 3H is trueâ in all respectsâas per Nunoâs comment, uncertainty may justify some compounding âpatient philanthropyâ, which could have high stakes if the hinge comes later. But thatâs a minor quibble: I take myself to be broadly in agreement with your larger gist.)